The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.
That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.
Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher.
Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher.
This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserveâs decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumersâ pocketbooks.
These adjustments happen all the time. How many bps does this reflect maybe 20 bps?
Point is, data isnt perfect, but it provides general trends of where the markets are...and generally the labor market is still pretty tight, in the aggregate.
Ave earnings were also up 4.1% in December.
The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.
That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.
Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher.
Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher.
This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumers’ pocketbooks.
Tthe biggest problem, which no one likes to talk about, is debt...from the gov down to the consumer. $1.7t deficit adding to over $34T in US natl debt, up over 50% or $12T since FYE19. Consumer credit card debt over $1T and climbing, with interest rates over 20% OK, the economy is "strong" because people are "consuming"...but our finances suck.
The interest payment on that $34 Trillion last year was $659 Billion and is expected to go over $800 Billion in 2024.
It will or already has exceeded our annual defense budget.
The BRIC alliance is ever so much closer to ending the Dollar's international reserve currency status. When that happens, we are toast, overnight.
Tthe biggest problem, which no one likes to talk about, is debt...from the gov down to the consumer.
$1.7t deficit adding to over $34T in US natl debt, up over 50% or $12T since FYE19.
Consumer credit card debt over $1T and climbing, with interest rates over 20%
OK, the economy is "strong" because people are "consuming"...but our finances suck.
One thing you often hear is that wage growth hasnt kept pace with inflation...took a quick look, and if you compare real earnings as of Feb 2020 and Nov 2023, real earnings are essentially flat (up about 60 bps).
Real hourly/weekly earnings were $11.01/$378.73 in Feb 2020 and $11.07/$380.96 in Nov 2023, per BLS.
I remember them spiking few years ago, and the majority of people in India had to suffer from hunger, due to rice being traded on Wall Street. Similar to wheat prices which helped causing the 'Arab Spring' in Egypt.
When will those Wolves of Wall Street finally be decapitated?
I guess, only another Trump could do this. And, of course, everyone of us on our own small scale, if only we cared enough to think and act, beyond our private doorstep.
The strength of the US economy and a few other economies heading into late 2023 have surprised a lot of observers.
That said, a US recession looks increasingly inevitable at this point. Hopefully inflation gets truly knocked back. Food inflation has been particularly brutal for the poor and low-income workers.
Recession start date? Hard to say. The US economy could already be in a recession. Or the US recession will start sometime between now and May 2024. With the complexity of the NBER dating system, we won't know for many months after the fact.
The current or impending recession should be relatively short and shallow. The downside risk consists of higher for longer real borrowing costs. Both the proxy war in Ukraine and the recent flare up in the former Palestinian Mandate contribute to higher real capital costs. Directly and indirectly. Among other factors, looks like there might an increase of ~$1.50 in the security premium built into the benchmark prices of oil. How that evolves and how long that last depends. Higher priced oil could nudge the Federal Reserve to once again raise overnight rates in November.
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Saw a rumour the other day that Paul Krugman was being considered for Chair of the Federal Reserve. That would be a gigantic mistake in my opinion and would certainly contribute to higher real borrowing costs for longer were that to materialize.
Bright side? Low-risk fixed income assets are offering much higher yields than they have in several decades. Great news for risk averse retirees.
Participation rate peaked about 20 ya and fell to about 63% after the Great Recession… in part due to retirement, to take care of families, off the grid gigs, lifestyle changes (I know many millennials who take a year or two off before returning to work)… and maybe a few for the reasons you imply… but I doubt it moved the needle.
Participation rate peaked about 20 ya and fell to about 63% after the Great Recession⦠in part due to retirement, to take care of families, off the grid gigs, lifestyle changes (I know many millennials who take a year or two off before returning to work)⦠and maybe a few for the reasons you imply⦠but I doubt it moved the needle.
I wonder if anyone tracks unfilled job openings. Not sure there is a good way to do it but it would be interesting to see the demand for workers
JOLTS Report showed 9.6m openings, compared to about 6.4m unemployed...but gets a little tricky when you get into marginally attached etc. https://www.bls.gov/jlt/ Lots of "good" news, but also lots to be cautious about dwindling savings, rising debt and delinquencies, fading stimulus, declining housing affordability, labor strikes, D.C.... Surge in yields has been the big story. Initially started over the summer when the good news was a recession seemed less likely...now indicates we are in for a longer period of high rates and volatile pricing. The Goldilocks era of low rates and inflation is over.
JOLTS Report showed 9.6m openings, compared to about 6.4m unemployed...but gets a little tricky when you get into marginally attached etc. https://www.bls.gov/jlt/
Lots of "good" news, but also lots to be cautious about dwindling savings, rising debt and delinquencies, fading stimulus, declining housing affordability, labor strikes, D.C....
Surge in yields has been the big story. Initially started over the summer when the good news was a recession seemed less likely...now indicates we are in for a longer period of high rates and volatile pricing. The Goldilocks era of low rates and inflation is over.
i send kids over to the bls site to look at the career outlook
I wonder if anyone tracks unfilled job openings. Not sure there is a good way to do it but it would be interesting to see the demand for workers
JOLTS Report showed 9.6m openings, compared to about 6.4m unemployed...but gets a little tricky when you get into marginally attached etc. https://www.bls.gov/jlt/
Lots of "good" news, but also lots to be cautious about dwindling savings, rising debt and delinquencies, fading stimulus, declining housing affordability, labor strikes, D.C....
Surge in yields has been the big story. Initially started over the summer when the good news was a recession seemed less likely...now indicates we are in for a longer period of high rates and volatile pricing. The Goldilocks era of low rates and inflation is over.
