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Index »
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Page: Previous 1, 2, 3, 4 ... 211, 212, 213 Next |
black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
Jun 4, 2024 - 10:08am |
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rgio wrote:
Insurance, for some asset classes, is very competitive. It is... because there is so much money made. How do you think Warren got soooooo rich?
The deflection to inflation is short-sighted and wrong. Sure the cost of shingles and labor are a big part of the pricing, but when you need twice as many roofs repaired every month, the supply and demand for materials and people to use them will remain high.
Insurance is based on 100% of the people supporting the financial needs of 1%. If the need doubles to 2%... without any inflation ... it costs twice as much. That's MUCH more expensive than a 20% increase in the price of lumber.
you're talking about diversification...putting everyone in the pool to share the risk. this lowers cost by reducing variability...and one of the reasons why we need some type of universal health care.
the cost of the risk is calculated using the probability of the event and the cost of the event.
we know the cost of the even has increased, at least your 20% #, but I havent seen real data that shows how the probability of the event has changed.
and i was being facetious (kind of) about the advertising.
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rgio

Location: West Jersey Gender:  
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Posted:
Jun 4, 2024 - 10:03am |
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black321 wrote:As for insurance inflation, how much cheaper would it be if geico, state farm etc...weren't running tv ads every 15 minutes?
Insurance, for some asset classes, is very competitive. It is... because there is so much money made. How do you think Warren got soooooo rich?
The deflection to inflation is short-sighted and wrong. Sure the cost of shingles and labor are a big part of the pricing, but when you need twice as many roofs repaired every month, the supply and demand for materials and people to use them will remain high.
Insurance is based on 100% of the people supporting the financial needs of 1%. If the need doubles to 2%... without any inflation ... it costs twice as much. That's MUCH more expensive than a 20% increase in the price of lumber.
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black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
Jun 4, 2024 - 9:19am |
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kurtster wrote:
It is not climate change that is driving up the cost of home owners insurance. Primarily it is from the rapidly rising cost of building materials and labor as well as replacement costs for personal items.
The rise in cost of building materials is primarily driven by inflation and supply or lack thereof. Construction labor is in extremely short supply driving those costs ever higher.
Anyone bought any drywall or plywood lately ? If so, you know of what I speak.
Well yes, as RP commented, its a contributor.
Material costs have actually somewhat normalized, but labor rates are through the roof. The small business cos are really driving ridiculous inflation for home improvement.
For a 12x 14' deck, i received quotes from $18-$25,000. I calculated material costs from Home Depot at up to $4,000.
To fix some concrete shingle tiles and add a few feet of flashing around gutters, no material costs, quotes up to $7,000. At most this was a 20 hour job for one person.
As for insurance inflation, how much cheaper would it be if geico, state farm etc...weren't running tv ads every 15 minutes?
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R_P

Gender:  
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Posted:
Jun 3, 2024 - 5:19pm |
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kurtster wrote:
It is not climate change that is driving up the cost of home owners insurance. Primarily it is from the rapidly rising cost of building materials and labor as well as replacement costs for personal items.
The rise in cost of building materials is primarily driven by inflation and supply or lack thereof. Construction labor is in extremely short supply driving those costs ever higher.
Anyone bought any drywall or plywood lately ? If so, you know of what I speak.
A false dilemma (with the usual side dish of denial). It's not one or the other, it's both, and more. Location (such as Florida) is a factor. Insurance rates have been climbing for a number of reasons: Storms have become more frequent and severe, inflation and labor shortages have driven up the cost of repairs and home values have increased, requiring larger policies. The biggest jumps occurred in Texas, Arizona and Utah, which were among 25 states in total that posted double-digit surges last year. In some places, including Florida, rates are up more than 40 percent over the past five years.
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kurtster

Location: where fear is not a virtue Gender:  
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Posted:
Jun 3, 2024 - 5:10pm |
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It is not climate change that is driving up the cost of home owners insurance. Primarily it is from the rapidly rising cost of building materials and labor as well as replacement costs for personal items.
The rise in cost of building materials is primarily driven by inflation and supply or lack thereof. Construction labor is in extremely short supply driving those costs ever higher.
Anyone bought any drywall or plywood lately ? If so, you know of what I speak.
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R_P

Gender:  
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Posted:
Jun 3, 2024 - 4:31pm |
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The Age of RecoupmentHow power, technology, and opportunity have come together to gouge consumers
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ColdMiser

Location: On the Trail Gender:  
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Posted:
May 30, 2024 - 7:52am |
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black321 wrote:
if you donât believe in climate changec just talk to an insurance agent or claim adjuster.
So turning to the politics of climate change. It's well known that Republicans either flat out deny it or don't feel they need to do anything about it. Democrats on the other hand acknowledge the problem and for the most part want to pursue the fight to combat it. It's not a secret that insurance companies are running for the hills as evidence in the post below. So why aren't Democrats up on a stump pinning the insurance issue on Republicans? Hey local Joe, your insurance company just dropped you because there was a flood 10 miles from your home. Well you can blame your fellow Republican representative who is wasting your time and money fighting against gay people instead of taking the lead on climate change and the resulting problems it's causing that hits you, Joe, right in the wallet. Where are the ads? The social media memes etc.
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black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
May 29, 2024 - 5:21pm |
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if you donât believe in climate changec just talk to an insurance agent or claim adjuster.
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R_P

Gender:  
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Posted:
May 29, 2024 - 2:39pm |
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rgio wrote:It's a problem that's going to get worse. States all have funds to backstop insurers, but they don't have enough for something catastrophic. Climate change is everywhere. Beyond the fires and tornados and hurricanes, places that were generally immune have increasingly frequent problems.
Ironically, we get more " Acts of God" caused by humans.
An act of God is an uncontrollable event, such as a tornado, flood, or tsunami, not caused or controlled by humans.
NYT article below on archive.
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rgio

Location: West Jersey Gender:  
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Posted:
May 29, 2024 - 2:21pm |
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black321 wrote:good point. I read a bloomberg piece that said if CPI had included home insurance inflation (not renters insurance) last year's inflation would have been up near another 1%.
Obviously, this is a cost that is likely to continue to climb.
ps., I live in a wildfire zone and got quotes from $4 - $9,000
This is another example of people saying one thing and doing another.
Everyone is complaining about inflation and interest rates, yet the average price of a home in April is up 5.7% YOY, and buyers are complaining there is no inventory (an issue that's being driven a bit by people sitting on 3% mortgages who see no reason to move even though their homes are now bigger than they need). The increase in prices at 7% interest works out to an extra $160/month on a 30-year loan.
Insurance costs are a problem (unless you're in the insurance business). Hell, Warren Buffett just picked up $6B in Chubb stock on the QT, so besides running GEICO, he's doubling down on insurance company valuations. If you want to hear some really shitty stories, go listen to the NY Times Podcast - The Daily. The May 15 one was called "The Possible Collapse of the US Home Insurance System".
It's got some interesting examples...here's the one I remembered when you posted about your wildfire issues (pulled the transcript from the NY Times... which I doubt you can get to outside the firewall).
I got into my rental car and drove about an hour northeast of Des Moines, through some rolling hills, to this lovely little town of Marshalltown. Marshalltown is a really cute, little Midwestern town with old homes and a beautiful courthouse in the town square. And when I drove through, I couldnât help noticing all the roofs looked new.
Turns out Marshalltown, despite being a pastoral image of Midwestern easy living, was hit by two really bad disasters in recent years â first, a devastating tornado in 2018 and then, in 2020, whatâs called a derecho, a straight-line wind event thatâs also just enormously damaging. And the result was lots of homes in this small town got severely damaged in a short period of time. And so when you drive down, you see all these new roofs that give you the sense that somethingâs going on.
A place that had previously seemed maybe safe from climate change, if there is such a thing, all of a sudden was not. So I found an insurance agent in Marshalltown âWe talked to other agents but havenât talked to many homeowners. He invited me to his office early one morning and said, come meet some people. And so I parked on a quiet street outside of his office, across the street from the courthouse, which also had a new roof, and went into his conference room and met a procession of clients who all had versions of the same horror story.
Speaker 1
It was more â well more of double.
Speaker 2
A huge reduction in coverage with a huge price increase.
Some people had faced big premium hikes.
Speaker 3
Iâm just a little, small business owner. So every little bit I do feel. I was with IMT Insurance forever. And then when I moved in 2020, Bobby said they wonât insure a pool.
Some people had gotten dropped.
Speaker 2
Where we used to see carriers canceling someone for frequency of three or four or five claims, itâs one or two now.
It's a problem that's going to get worse. States all have funds to backstop insurers, but they don't have enough for something catastrophic. Climate change is everywhere. Beyond the fires and tornados and hurricanes, places that were generally immune have increasingly frequent problems.
Last comment... adding to this problem is that we don't build anything to last. We all grew up reciting the 3 little pigs, yet every house we build is made of sticks. Older Americans have borrowed against the future while simultaneously spreading landmines. The gifts that will keep on giving. Good luck kids!
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black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
May 29, 2024 - 1:41pm |
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R_P wrote:
I've seen insurance mentioned a few times (incl. as taken out of some index in the 80s or so). Today:
Home Insurance Is Clobbering Consumers. Yet Itâs Barely Counted as Inflation.
Skyrocketing premiums are hitting homeowners hard, but they barely factor into common price measures.
Holly Meyer Lucas estimates that as many as 30 of the 100 houses her real estate team sold in and around Jupiter, Fla., last year were put on the market because their owners could no longer keep up with skyrocketing home insurance. (...)
Cue climate change and insurance.
good point. I read a bloomberg piece that said if CPI had included home insurance inflation (not renters insurance) last year's inflation would have been up near another 1%.
Obviously, this is a cost that is likely to continue to climb.
ps., I live in a wildfire zone and got quotes from $4 - $9,000
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R_P

Gender:  
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Posted:
May 29, 2024 - 1:23pm |
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black321 wrote:
Some interesting inflation data...if you strip out shelter from CPI, inflation was just 2.5% in 2023 and was 2.2% in Apr (YOY), meaning annualized inflation fell to closer to 2% or more less in line with what it was the past 3 decades. Since 65% of us own homes, shelter inflation has little impact (only renters or those who recent purchased a home). Similar story if you track PCE inflation. So, is the fed wrong to focus on inflation, when it has in fact normalized (w/o shelter)...needlessly punishing the economy? But if the fed dropped rates, that would push housing inflation even higher and also stimulate non-housing inflation?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
I've seen insurance mentioned a few times (incl. as taken out of some index in the 80s or so). Today:
Home Insurance Is Clobbering Consumers. Yet Itâs Barely Counted as Inflation. *
Skyrocketing premiums are hitting homeowners hard, but they barely factor into common price measures.
Holly Meyer Lucas estimates that as many as 30 of the 100 houses her real estate team sold in and around Jupiter, Fla., last year were put on the market because their owners could no longer keep up with skyrocketing home insurance. (...)
Cue climate change and insurance.
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black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
May 29, 2024 - 12:59pm |
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Some interesting inflation data...if you strip out shelter from CPI, inflation was just 2.5% in 2023 and was 2.2% in Apr (YOY), meaning annualized inflation fell to closer to 2% or more less in line with what it was the past 3 decades. Since 65% of us own homes, shelter inflation has little impact (only renters or those who recent purchased a home). Similar story if you track PCE inflation. So, is the fed wrong to focus on inflation, when it has in fact normalized (w/o shelter)...needlessly punishing the economy? But if the fed dropped rates, that would push housing inflation even higher and also stimulate non-housing inflation?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
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black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
May 1, 2024 - 12:19pm |
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islander wrote:
I know a couple of people who pursued this. These are above average individuals across the board. Both of them burned out on the process and bailed. One went back to corporate and is slogging along being very successful and has a nice jump start due to their savings, but they say it wasn't worth it. The other went rogue and lived the gypsy/nomad life, spent their way through their savings and they are now doing charity stuff in foreign lands and subsistence living financially. Neither of them thinks about retirement much.
I think this story shows how today we use data to create new "trends."
People have been doing this for decades...and as for job satisfaction, I don't recall many of my generation "emotionally" attached to their job...or my father's generation for that matter.
I think the data seems to legitimize the way the "millennials" feel...whereas prior generations didnt think so much about it...they did the work to provide for their families....
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islander

Location: West coast somewhere Gender:  
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Posted:
Apr 23, 2024 - 12:11pm |
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black321 wrote:
Interesting...the strategy seems to be, limit your own consumption, but grow your portfolio value by investing in an economy entirely built on over consumption...hmmm
Playing with FIRE: How to quit work and retire in your 30s
Recent studies suggest that over half of millennials do not see themselves as 'emotionally and behaviourally' connected to their job and company. Exhausted from high-pressure jobs and with a growing sense of burnout, some millennials are following a personal finance strategy that allows them to quit the day job and retire decades early.
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video...
I know a couple of people who pursued this. These are above average individuals across the board. Both of them burned out on the process and bailed. One went back to corporate and is slogging along being very successful and has a nice jump start due to their savings, but they say it wasn't worth it. The other went rogue and lived the gypsy/nomad life, spent their way through their savings and they are now doing charity stuff in foreign lands and subsistence living financially. Neither of them thinks about retirement much.
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black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
Apr 23, 2024 - 11:11am |
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Interesting...the strategy seems to be, limit your own consumption, but grow your portfolio value by investing in an economy entirely built on over consumption...hmmm
Playing with FIRE: How to quit work and retire in your 30s
Recent studies suggest that over half of millennials do not see themselves as 'emotionally and behaviourally' connected to their job and company. Exhausted from high-pressure jobs and with a growing sense of burnout, some millennials are following a personal finance strategy that allows them to quit the day job and retire decades early.
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video...
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black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
Apr 23, 2024 - 8:16am |
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Current Shiller PE Ratio: 33.58 +0.32 (0.95%)11:02 AM EDT, Tue Apr 23 Mean: | 17.11 | | Median: | 15.98 |
| Min: | 4.78 | (Dec 1920) | Max: | 44.19 | (Dec 1999) |
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller...
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R_P

Gender:  
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Posted:
Mar 19, 2024 - 4:36pm |
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Freedom (and poverty) in Argentina: Mileiâs 100 frenetic days in power and an unprecedented economic experiment *
The ultra-neoliberal policies of the new president threaten to dynamite the already weak foundations of the welfare state in the South American country
The Argentine president, a 53-year-old economist and TV panelist by profession, defines himself as a libertarian. He is a follower of the Austrian School, a school of thought founded by Carl Menger at the end of the 19th century, which places individual freedom as the basis of progress and maintains that the state should stay away from the economic decisions of individuals. âThe state is a criminal organization,â Milei affirmed on March 1, in his opening speech to the 2024-2025 legislative session. This is the same message that made him popular as a talk show guest and on which he based his successful electoral campaign when he made the leap to politics. The difference is that, since December 10 of 2023, Milei is the leading representative of the very institutions heâs attacking.
The president admires the economist Murray Rothbard, of the Austrian School, to the point of naming one of his four dogs after him. The term âanarcho-capitalismâ is attributed to Rothbard, who defended the total abolition of the state in favor of individual sovereignty.
Milei considers himself to be an anarcho-capitalist at heart, but a minarchist in practice: that is, he believes that state functions should be limited to justice and security. This explains why, some time ago, he was in favor of the sale of organs â and even the sale of children â and no restrictions on personal firearms. He dropped these ideas in the final months of the presidential campaign.
Mileiâs doctrine is radical for any country â âIâm the first libertarian president in the world,â he likes to boast â but much more so in Argentina, where the state is one of the largest employers and the economy receives massive public investment. The resounding victory of a candidate who brandished a chainsaw as a symbol of cutting public spending was possible due to widespread fatigue with the traditional political class, after 12 years of economic stagnation and Argentinesâ loss of purchasing power.
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black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
Nov 28, 2023 - 7:38am |
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Dr. Doom Strikes Again.
Interesting, albeit one-sided discussion from Roubini, a/k/a Dr. Doom.
A central tenet of his argument is higher inflation and interest rates, although at least recently we have seen both come down.
Economic and financial threats are rising and interacting in volatile ways with social, political, environmental and technological challenges
Since the publication of Megathreats in October 2022, the themes I emphasized have gone mainstream. Everyone now acknowledges that economic, monetary and financial threats are rising and interacting in dangerous ways with various other social, political, geopolitical, environmental, health and technological developments.
Hence, in December 2022, the Financial Times chose âpolycrisisâ as one of its buzzwords of the year. Whatever oneâs preferred term (others have adopted âpermacrisisâ or â confluence of calamitiesâ), there is growing recognition that not only the global economy but also human survival is at risk.
As I warned in Megathreats, the âGreat Moderationâ (a long period of low macroeconomic volatility following the mid-1980s) has given way to the âGreat Stagflation.â In 2022, we witnessed a surge of inflation in advanced economies and emerging markets, a sharp slowdown of global growth that continued into 2023, and signs of severe private- and public-sector debt problems as central banks raised policy rates to stabilize prices.
Youâre not imagining things: The end of the âeverything bubbleâ has made the world more dangerous (msn.com)
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black321

Location: An earth without maps Gender:  
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Posted:
Jul 12, 2023 - 9:40am |
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YOLO stimulus funds about to run dry....with election season ramping up, when are we going to get another round or another tax cut? We all know deficits don't matter...but don't consumers also need to cut their consumption because we need to save the environment?
According to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, the U.S. economy appears to be âprogressing smoothly, with a resilient consumer impervious to the impact of higher borrowing costs.â
These spenders are the âYOLO (you only live once) consumersâ who, Siegel believes, are spending the last of their cash reserves on traveling and enjoying the summer.
However, the Russell E. Palmer professor emeritus of finance warned that this could signal âthe last good stretches for the economy before the summer ends and credit card bills come due.â He added that in the past, when students return to school in September and October, this has previously made for some âdicey periods for the markets.â
Professor Siegel also issued a warning to the Fed, to which he has previously appealed to pause rate hikes. The finance and economics expert said it would be a âmistakeâ for the Fed to wait until it saw a downturn in the jobs market before it began easing rate hikes.
Billionaire investor Bill Gross has also said he believes the coffers of American consumers will run dry by the end of the year. The Wall Street titan reportedly worth $2.6 billion tweeted Monday: â4 trillion of COVID spending still dripping into economy with consumers still spending their last $500 billion or so. The trick is when to time the end of it. Fourth quarter is the best guess.
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