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thisbody

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Location: out of space
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Posted: Sep 18, 2024 - 9:43am

...from cuts to solutions, dissolving... 
black321

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Location: An earth without maps
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Posted: Sep 18, 2024 - 9:33am


Some day, probably, the debt will matter. 

Federal Debt Is Soaring. Here’s Why Trump and Harris Aren’t Talking About It.

Both candidates were part of administrations that produced growing deficits. Neither is likely to reverse that trend if elected.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/p...

The U.S. isn’t fighting a war, a crisis or a recession. Yet the federal government is borrowing as if it were.

This year’s budget deficit is on track to top $1.9 trillion, or more than 6% of economic output, a threshold reached only around World War II, the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Publicly held federal debt—the sum of all deficits—just passed $28 trillion or almost 100% of GDP.

If Congress does nothing, the total debt will climb by another $22 trillion through 2034. Interest costs alone are poised to exceed annual defense spending.

But the country’s fiscal trajectory merits only sporadic mentions by the major-party presidential nominees, let alone a serious plan to address it. Instead, the candidates are tripping over each other to make expensive promises to voters.

Economists and policymakers already worry that the growing debt pile could put upward pressure on interest rates, restraining economic growth, crowding out other priorities and potentially impairing Washington’s ability to borrow in case of a war or another crisis. There have been scattered warning signs already, including downgrades to the U.S. credit rating and lackluster demand for Treasury debt at some auctions.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and GOP rival Donald Trump aren’t the same on fiscal policy. She has outlined or endorsed enough fiscal measures—tax increases or spending cuts—to plausibly pay for much of her agenda. He has not.

Still, both Harris and Trump were parts of administrations that helped produce those deficits. Both have promised to protect the biggest drivers of rising spending—Social Security and Medicare. And both want to extend trillions of dollars in tax cuts set to lapse at the end of 2025, amid bipartisan agreement that federal income taxes shouldn’t rise for at least 97% of households.








kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 22, 2024 - 7:51am

 black321 wrote:
When your estimates/data is this far off, you're bound to have those scream conspiracy...or at the least, incompetence. 

The New York Times reports that "the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs in 2023 and early 2024 than previously reported, a sign that cracks in the labor market are more severe — and began forming earlier — than initially believed.

"On Wednesday, the Labor Department said that monthly payroll figures overstated job growth by roughly 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March. That suggests employers added about 174,000 jobs per month during that period, down from the previously reported pace of about 242,000 jobs — a downward revision of about 28 percent.

"The revisions, which are preliminary, are part of an annual process in which monthly estimates, based on surveys, are reconciled with more accurate but less timely records from state unemployment offices. The new figures, once finalized, will be incorporated into official government employment statistics early next year.

"The updated numbers are the latest sign of vulnerability in the job market, which until recently had appeared rock solid despite months of high interest rates and economists’ warnings of an impending recession. More recent data, which wasn’t affected by the revisions, suggest job growth slowed further in the spring and summer, and the unemployment rate, though still relatively low at 4.3 percent, has been gradually rising."

 
Yeah, but the Fed is using these numbers for decision making purposes, afaik.
black321

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Location: An earth without maps
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Posted: Aug 22, 2024 - 7:33am

 R_P wrote:

Hurrah!...oh, wait
black321

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Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 22, 2024 - 7:32am

When your estimates/data is this far off, you're bound to have those scream conspiracy...or at the least, incompetence. 

The New York Times reports that "the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs in 2023 and early 2024 than previously reported, a sign that cracks in the labor market are more severe — and began forming earlier — than initially believed.

"On Wednesday, the Labor Department said that monthly payroll figures overstated job growth by roughly 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March. That suggests employers added about 174,000 jobs per month during that period, down from the previously reported pace of about 242,000 jobs — a downward revision of about 28 percent.

"The revisions, which are preliminary, are part of an annual process in which monthly estimates, based on surveys, are reconciled with more accurate but less timely records from state unemployment offices. The new figures, once finalized, will be incorporated into official government employment statistics early next year.

"The updated numbers are the latest sign of vulnerability in the job market, which until recently had appeared rock solid despite months of high interest rates and economists’ warnings of an impending recession. More recent data, which wasn’t affected by the revisions, suggest job growth slowed further in the spring and summer, and the unemployment rate, though still relatively low at 4.3 percent, has been gradually rising."




R_P

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Posted: Jul 6, 2024 - 3:40pm

US federal budget crosses grim milestone as interest payments overtake defense spending
R_P

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Posted: Jul 5, 2024 - 11:20am

Political Unrest Worldwide Is Fueled by High Prices and Huge Debts
Economic turmoil is spreading across the globe, and the response has been protests, attempted coups and elections of far-right politicians.
Like a globe-spanning tornado that touches down with little predictability, deep economic anxieties are leaving a trail of political turmoil and violence across poor and rich countries alike. (...)

The causes, context and conditions underlying these disruptions vary widely from country to country. But a common thread is clear: rising inequality, diminished purchasing power and growing anxiety that the next generation will be worse off than this one.

The result is that citizens in many countries who face a grim economic outlook have lost faith in the ability of their governments to cope — and are striking back.

The backlash has often targeted liberal democracy and democratic capitalism, with populist movements springing up on both the left and right. “An economic malaise and a political malaise are feeding each other,” said Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University. (...)

“There is a problem of representation and discontent,” Mr. Guzmán said. “That is a combination that leads to social unrest.” (...)

Overall, Europeans have felt that their wages are not going as far as they used to. Inflation reached nearly 11 percent at one point in 2022, chipping away at incomes. Roughly a third of people in the European Union believe their standards of living will decline over the next five years, according to a recent survey.
Cue the usual scapegoats.
Bill_J

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Posted: Jun 8, 2024 - 5:25pm

 kurtster wrote:

Shrinkflation has finally gone too far.

Of all things, Q-Tips brand cotton swabs has greatly reduced the amount of cotton on the tips making them more of a dangerous pointy object than useful.

Another venerable trusted old brand, trashed.  Shoulda just left it it alone and raised the price. 



Maybe it's just that your ears are getting bigger. 
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 8, 2024 - 4:53pm

Shrinkflation has finally gone too far.

Of all things, Q-Tips brand cotton swabs has greatly reduced the amount of cotton on the tips making them more of a dangerous pointy object than useful.

Another venerable trusted old brand, trashed.  Shoulda just left it it alone and raised the price. 
R_P

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Posted: Jun 8, 2024 - 11:00am

 rgio wrote:
I assume we're talking about capitalism.  There is a definition beyond "the private ownership of the means of production and their profits"? 

Not really, but there is the tendency to call mixed systems capitalism as well.


Then the context (and article) is about (hallowed) pathological self-interest.
rgio

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Location: West Jersey
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Posted: Jun 8, 2024 - 9:22am

 miamizsun wrote:
a lot depends on how someone defines it as well


I assume we're talking about capitalism.  There is a definition beyond "the private ownership of the means of production and their profits"?  




Lazy8

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Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
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Posted: Jun 8, 2024 - 8:55am

 R_P wrote:
Noted anti-capitalist agitator Adam Smith had it right: "People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices."

(1/85)

Pity you stopped reading there. But, you know...context is hard.

He goes on to say:

"It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages. Nobody but a beggar chuses to depend chiefly upon the benevolence of his fellow-citizens."
miamizsun

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Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 8, 2024 - 8:16am

 black321 wrote:


It's the worst economic system there is...except for all the others humans have conjured



a lot depends on how someone defines it as well
black321

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Posted: Jun 6, 2024 - 11:31am

 thisbody wrote:



It's the worst economic system there is...except for all the others humans have conjured

thisbody

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Posted: Jun 6, 2024 - 10:59am


R_P

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Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 5, 2024 - 5:48pm

Noted anti-capitalist agitator Adam Smith had it right: "People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices."

(1/85)

Steely_D

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Posted: Jun 5, 2024 - 12:29am

 black321 wrote:
.As for insurance inflation, how much cheaper would it be if geico, state farm etc...weren't running tv ads every 15 minutes? 

I’ve had USAA for decades (Dad was Chair Force) and a few years ago when they started running commercials I began to think it was time to switch. The product is so prevalent with the military, why would they need to advertise so globally to somehow capture the folks who are qualified to join - but haven’t heard of it? That’s gotta be a very small number. So it seems like a horrible business decision that can do nothing but cause a rate rise.

rgio

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Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 4, 2024 - 1:15pm

 Isabeau wrote:
No climate change here man...  s/

We all hear facts and stats and data in support of things getting really hot really fast... but the fact that water temps in Florida reached 100 degrees last summer still makes me shake my head.  It's not "shoreline" water (a bay)...but still.

I've been in hot tubs at 103... 105... and had to get out.  100-degree ocean/bay/sea/lake water?  
Isabeau

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Location: sou' tex
Gender: Female


Posted: Jun 4, 2024 - 12:19pm

 rgio wrote:


This gets incredibly complicated... because storm counts, deaths, damage costs, etc. (the quantitative measures) can't embed the severity.   There are only "so many days" in a weather pattern per season, so while the number of hurricanes in Florida might not rise, the severity of them can significantly change financial impact/exposure.  

On top of all of that... insurance company employees enjoy unreasonably high compensation levels.  As I've heard Scott Galloway say a few times ... "if you meet someone average who seems to make a lot of money, they likely work in insurance" 

'just'
Heat related Deaths last Summer:
874   AZ
450   TX
226   NV
  84    FL
  83    LA

Many believe these numbers are lower than the reality.

No climate change here man...  s/
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 4, 2024 - 10:51am

 black321 wrote:


you're talking about diversification...putting everyone in the pool to share the risk. this lowers cost by reducing variability...and one of the reasons why we need some type of universal health care. 
the cost of the risk is calculated using the probability of the event and the cost of the event. 
we know the cost of the even has increased, at least your 20% #, but I havent seen real data that shows how the probability of the event has changed. 
and i was being facetious (kind of) about the advertising. 



This gets incredibly complicated... because storm counts, deaths, damage costs, etc. (the quantitative measures) can't embed the severity.   There are only "so many days" in a weather pattern per season, so while the number of hurricanes in Florida might not rise, the severity of them can significantly change financial impact/exposure.  

On top of all of that... insurance company employees enjoy unreasonably high compensation levels.  As I've heard Scott Galloway say a few times ... "if you meet someone average who seems to make a lot of money, they likely work in insurance" 
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