3. If Trump becomes president, what in the world should I do?
This question is getting lots of traction with our client base. This week's primaries will only to serve to heighten investor anxiety. It was interesting also this week that one of the leading Internet search trends recently was 'how do I move to Canada?' as US citizens fret about what may or may not happen. The issue with Trump is uncertainty. You never know what he might say, or do, or whom he might offend. For markets, one of the worst things in uncertainty, and Trump as President would keep investors guessing, likely on a daily basis. While the market has a very good way of discounting politics in advance, and generally it is wiser to ignore most politics when investing, this election will likely change that. We really have no idea how markets might react to a President Trump. But it is not likely to be a giant rally: We would keep some cash or gold on hand, just in case.
Well, perhaps some of the Republican faithful will vote for Hillary Clinton, in an Anybody But Trump voter strategy. Now that would be humorous.
For the young'uns and those with a failing memory, Canada did nicely during the Vietnam War. Lots of talent and energy escaped or drifted north. Even the back-to-the-land bohemians were of quality.
A few malcontents drifted north during the early part of the Bush, Jr. tenure but the numbers were small.
Frankly, I reckon that a President Donald Trump would tone down the rhetoric and govern much differently from his campaign rhetoric. He might not be such a bad president after all.
The ethics of basically lying to the electorate are not great, frankly anti-democratic, but I'm sure many Americans would forgive him.
Besides, when Mme Madeleine 'any opportunity to lose an opportunity' Albright came out aggressively behind Hillary Clinton I experienced visions of yet another Sept. 11th type attack on domestic American target with yet another hyper-vigilant mass hysterical reaction on the part of the American people that would result in policies that would once again further weaken US hegemonic privilege. Part of that vision perhaps a nightmare to some involves the USA helpless to stop China from spreading its geographical reach in SE Asia.
Canada got some excellent scientists during the McCarthy Era.
Well, perhaps some of the Republican faithful will vote for Hillary Clinton, in an Anybody But Trump voter strategy. Now that would be humorous.
For the young'uns and those with a failing memory, Canada did nicely during the Vietnam War. Lots of talent and energy escaped or drifted north. Even the back-to-the-land bohemians were of quality.
A few malcontents drifted north during the early part of the Bush, Jr. tenure but the numbers were small.
Frankly, I reckon that a President Donald Trump would tone down the rhetoric and govern much differently from his campaign rhetoric. He might not be such a bad president after all.
The ethics of basically lying to the electorate are not great, frankly anti-democratic, but I'm sure many Americans would forgive him.
Besides, when Mme Madeleine 'any opportunity to lose an opportunity' Albright came out aggressively behind Hillary Clinton I experienced visions of yet another Sept. 11th type attack on a domestic American target with yet another hyper-vigilant mass hysterical reaction on the part of the American people that would result in policies that would once again further weaken US hegemonic privilege.
Part of that vision perhaps a nightmare to some involves the USA helpless to stop China from spreading its geographical reach in SE Asia.
You're counting actual membership, Dave is counting sympathizers.
Party members are committed enough to be counted on to vote, sympathizers less so. Voter turnout had been hovering around 55% since the '70s, but went up to about 60% in the 2006 election and more or less stayed there. We haven't seen turnout at even 70% in a hundred years.
Even with the enthusiasm around Obama's campaigns he got just over 50% of the vote. With the Democrats looking to nominate a toad and the Republicans picking an even lower form of life I expect turnout will be pretty abysmal.
I've been thinking that the populist track would turn out more new voters and scare some of the current registered voters into counter votes. I'm predicting higher than average, but still at 60% +/- 5%.
You're counting actual membership, Dave is counting sympathizers.
Party members are committed enough to be counted on to vote, sympathizers less so. Voter turnout had been hovering around 55% since the '70s, but went up to about 60% in the 2006 election and more or less stayed there. We haven't seen turnout at even 70% in a hundred years.
Even with the enthusiasm around Obama's campaigns he got just over 50% of the vote. With the Democrats looking to nominate a toad and the Republicans picking an even lower form of life I expect turnout will be pretty abysmal.
You can play with the turnout numbers here as well as the vote swing. Even being very generous and saying the Non-college white turnout hits 80% (this would be absolutely unprecedented) it still just takes a little swing in Latinos away from the Republicans (you think this current rhetoric will not have a long impact?), to hand the white house to Hillary.
I've been wrong about Trump all along, but I still say that even if he makes it to the white house, he will just realize the real issues of governance, get tired of it, and be gone in 4.
So if and when Donald Trump becomes the next president of the USA—and that appears more and more likely—should Canadians expect a large exodus of smart, high energy, highly educated/well-trained productive Americans who self-identify as liberal or progressive?
We Canadians want your brightest and best! Please come on up here and make yourself at home.
As of October 2014, Gallup polling found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans, when party "leaners" were included; those figures changed to 41% Democratic and 42% Republican after the November 2014 elections.However, an earlier 2013 Gallup survey found that 42% of Americans identified as political independents, a record high.
The latter result is more in line with Gallup polling in 2010 that found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats (tying a 22-year low), 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents. Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party. Combining leaners with each party's core identifiers, the parties ended up tied at 45 percent in 2011.
As of October 2014, Gallup polling found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans, when party "leaners" were included; those figures changed to 41% Democratic and 42% Republican after the November 2014 elections.However, an earlier 2013 Gallup survey found that 42% of Americans identified as political independents, a record high.
The latter result is more in line with Gallup polling in 2010 that found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats (tying a 22-year low), 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents. Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party. Combining leaners with each party's core identifiers, the parties ended up tied at 45 percent in 2011.
Those figures don't include the many of us who in the last year switched from being life long Democrats to the Republican party after realizing the Democratic party was no longer remotely representative of our needs.
Location: No longer in a hovel in effluent Damnville, VA Gender:
Posted:
Feb 28, 2016 - 8:52am
bokey wrote:
How snarky,let me offer the same-I'm sure they'd have no problem leaving their carnage behind.Please feel welcome to them.We'll throw in the crime and drugs that they enable along with them for free.
As of October 2014, Gallup polling found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans, when party "leaners" were included; those figures changed to 41% Democratic and 42% Republican after the November 2014 elections.<3>However, an earlier 2013 Gallup survey found that 42% of Americans identified as political independents, a record high.<4>
The latter result is more in line with Gallup polling in 2010 that found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats (tying a 22-year low), 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents.<5> Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party. Combining leaners with each party's core identifiers, the parties ended up tied at 45 percent in 2011.<6>
So if and when Donald Trump becomes the next president of the USA—and that appears more and more likely—should Canadians expect a large exodus of smart, high energy, highly educated/well-trained productive Americans who self-identify as liberal or progressive?
We Canadians want your brightest and best! Please come on up here and make yourself at home.
How snarky,let me offer the same-I'm sure they'd have no problem leaving their carnage behind.Please feel welcome to them.We'll throw in the crime and drugs that they enable along with them for free.
I still think his chances are slim in the general. The demographics just don't seem to be there. But he has surprised everyone so far, so maybe he can pull enough new voters from the disaffected crowd to offset the lack of minority support.
If he pull off the upset, you'll hear a lot of noise. But I don't think you'll see a lot of new citizens. As unpleasant as a Trump presidency may be, I think our nation is strong enough to survive it.
In raw numbers nationwide, Democrats outnumber Republicans by approximately 40%. All that is really required is that everyone vote.
So if and when Donald Trump becomes the next president of the USA—and that appears more and more likely—should Canadians expect a large exodus of smart, high energy, highly educated/well-trained productive Americans who self-identify as liberal or progressive?
We Canadians want your brightest and best! Please come on up here and make yourself at home.
So you guys are behind this mess. Very sneaky.
I still think his chances are slim in the general. The demographics just don't seem to be there. But he has surprised everyone so far, so maybe he can pull enough new voters from the disaffected crowd to offset the lack of minority support.
If he pull off the upset, you'll hear a lot of noise. But I don't think you'll see a lot of new citizens. As unpleasant as a Trump presidency may be, I think our nation is strong enough to survive it.
So if and when Donald Trump becomes the next president of the USA—and that appears more and more likely—should Canadians expect a large exodus of smart, high energy, highly educated/well-trained productive Americans who self-identify as liberal or progressive?
We Canadians want your brightest and best! Please come on up here and make yourself at home.
